World Energy Outlook Special Report

The sustainable recovery plan would begin the process of structurally reorienting countries’ energy sectors by accelerating the shift towards electricity and increasing the share of energy supplied by low-carbon energy sources (Figure 3.9). If all countries were to follow the proposals set out in the sustainable recovery plan:

 An average of around 130 gigawatts (GW) of additional wind and solar PV global capacity would be installed each year from 2021 to 2023 (additional to the levels that would be installed in the absence of the recovery plan). This additional capacity would generate nearly 320 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity on average each year. This would be underpinned by widespread grid extensions and improvements, including smart grids and energy storage. The $110 billion spending on grids in the sustainable recovery plan would increase total spending on grids globally by around 40% from levels seen in recent years, boosting investment towards the levels needed for a more resilient and sustainable electricity network.

 Just over 30 GW of hydro and nuclear power capacity would benefit from lifetime extensions each year to 2023. This enables 90 GW of hydro and nuclear capacity that would otherwise have been soon retired to continue to provide low-carbon power well beyond the end of the recovery plan.

 Final energy consumption would be around 350 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) lower than it would have been otherwise by the end of the spending period. Around one-third of this would be because of reductions in the traditional use of biomass as a result of shifts to clean cooking solutions.

 Global electricity demand would rise in the period of the recovery plan, but the increase would be around 900 TWh (75 Mtoe) lower than it would otherwise have been. There would be deep retrofits of a large number of existing buildings, and a number of new highly efficient buildings would be built. In total, the efficiency of around 20 million dwellings would be drastically improved each year as a result of the recovery plan. A number of end-uses in buildings could switch to renewable sources, such as solar water heaters and biomass boilers, to reduce fossil fuel and electricity use. Incentives in the recovery plan would stimulate the purchase of more than 350 million high efficiency appliances each year. A variety of efficiency improvements in industrial processes would curb electricity use.

 Oil consumption in transport would be around 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) (100 Mtoe) less. Around 12 million car purchases on average each year would be purchases of more efficient internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) (including hybrids), while around 6.5 million car purchases would be electric vehicles. Total annual average electric cars sales between 2021 and 2023 would be around 8 million. Oil demand in transport would also be reduced from a shift in some light commercial vehicles sales to electric models and from improvements in the efficiency of trucks, airplanes and ships.

 

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